12978 leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 82% of adults in 12978 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12978, ~29% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~18% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12978 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12978 leans more Republican than 8 of 9 neighbors.
12978 runs about 41 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12978 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 12978 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12978, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 4% of residents in 12978 live in densely developed areas, about 32 points below the New York average of 36%. A high white share with below-average college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 12978 fits that profile on both counts. 12978 runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; 12978, NY sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 12978 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 12978 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 62%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 99% of households in 12978 own their home, compared to around 82% in nearby zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.