21131 is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican.
About 96% of adults in 21131 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 21131, ~47% vote Democratic, ~49% Republican, and ~4% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 21131 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 21131 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 35 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 17 leaning the other way.
21131 runs about 31 points more Republican than Maryland as a whole. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while 21131 sits closer to the political middle.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 21131. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+5) and the east side runs the most Republican (R+10), a spread of about 15 points.
Why 21131 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 21131, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
21131 votes against the grain of Maryland. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while 21131 runs about 31 points more Republican.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; 21131, MD sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 21131 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 21131 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 75%, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 97% of households in 21131 own their home, compared to around 81% in nearby zip codes. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 99% of adults in 21131 have completed high school, above 97% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maryland State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.