21869 leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.
About 72% of adults in 21869 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 21869, ~23% vote Democratic, ~49% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 21869 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 21869 leans more Republican than 7 of 13 neighbors.
21869 runs about 65 points more Republican than Maryland as a whole. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while 21869 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 21869. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+48) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+30), a spread of about 18 points.
Why 21869 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 21869, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
21869 votes against the grain of Maryland. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while 21869 runs about 65 points more Republican. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 21869 sits in the bottom quarter (about 13%, below 87% of zip codes).
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 21869, MD sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 21869 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 21869 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 60%, below 60% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maryland State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.