23004 leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 62% of adults in 23004 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23004, ~26% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23004 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23004 leans more Republican than 4 of 10 neighbors.
23004 runs about 21 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23004 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23004. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+26) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+9), a spread of about 16 points.
Why 23004 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23004, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 5% of residents in 23004 live in densely developed areas, about 20 points below the Virginia average of 26%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 23004 sits in the bottom quarter (about 16%, below 78% of zip codes). 23004 runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 23004, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 23004 looks the way it does
Turnout in 23004 sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.