23115 leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 67% of adults in 23115 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23115, ~21% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23115 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23115 leans more Republican than 13 of 16 neighbors.
23115 runs about 43 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23115 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 23115 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23115, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 11% of adults in 23115 hold a bachelor's degree, about 17 points below the Virginia average of 29%. 23115 runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a rural land-use pattern tend to turn out at a higher rate, as 23115, VA does.
Why turnout in 23115 looks the way it does
Turnout in 23115 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.