23086 leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 79% of adults in 23086 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23086, ~24% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23086 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23086 leans more Republican than 10 of 12 neighbors.
23086 runs about 45 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23086 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23086. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+45) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+24), a spread of about 21 points.
Why 23086 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23086, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
23086 votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23086 runs about 45 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and 23086 sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 6%, below 76% of zip codes). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 83% of households in 23086 are family households, above 96% of zip codes.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 23086, VA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 23086 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 23086 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 66%, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 93% of households in 23086 own their home, about 18 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.