23821 is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 66% of adults in 23821 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23821, ~34% vote Democratic, ~32% Republican, and ~34% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23821 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23821 leans more Democratic than 6 of 9 neighbors.
Politically, 23821 sits close to the rest of Virginia.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23821. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+27) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+16), a spread of about 43 points.
Why 23821 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 23821. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 23821, VA sits above the national average on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 23821 looks the way it does
Turnout in 23821 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.