23831 leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.
About 84% of adults in 23831 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23831, ~49% vote Democratic, ~35% Republican, and ~16% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23831 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23831 leans more Democratic than 10 of 25 neighbors.
23831 runs about 10 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23831. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+25) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (Even), a spread of about 24 points.
Why 23831 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23831, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Density combined with diversity predicts Democratic voting. Non-Hispanic white share in 23831 is about 52%, about 20 points below the U.S. average of 72%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 23831 sits in the top quarter (about 36%, above 76% of zip codes).
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 23831, VA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 23831 looks the way it does
Turnout in 23831 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.