32202 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 48 points: about 74% of voters vote Democratic and 26% Republican.
About 38% of adults in 32202 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 32202, ~28% vote Democratic, ~10% Republican, and ~62% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 32202 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 32202 leans more Democratic than 27 of 30 neighbors.
32202 runs about 61 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while 32202 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 32202. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+76) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+16), a spread of about 60 points.
Why 32202 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 32202, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 95% of residents in 32202 live in densely developed areas, about 58 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 56% of adults in 32202 have never been married, above 97% of zip codes. 32202 runs against the grain of Florida, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 32202, FL sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 32202 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 32202 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 29%, about 27 points below the Florida average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 94% of households in 32202 rent, compared to around 51% in nearby zip codes. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 32202 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.