32254 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 44 points: about 72% of voters vote Democratic and 28% Republican.
About 54% of adults in 32254 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 32254, ~39% vote Democratic, ~15% Republican, and ~46% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 32254 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 32254 leans more Democratic than 24 of 28 neighbors.
32254 runs about 57 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while 32254 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 32254. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+70) and the south side runs the most Republican (R+10), a spread of about 80 points.
Why 32254 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 32254, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Density combined with diversity predicts Democratic voting. Non-Hispanic white share in 32254 is about 26%, about 46 points below the U.S. average of 72%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 46% of adults in 32254 have never been married, above 92% of zip codes. 32254 runs against the grain of Florida, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 32254, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 32254 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 32254 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 37%, about 20 points below the Florida average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 49% of households in 32254 rent, about 24 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 81% of adults in 32254 have completed high school, below 89% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.