32204 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 36 points: about 68% of voters vote Democratic and 32% Republican.
About 50% of adults in 32204 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 32204, ~34% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 32204 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 32204 leans more Democratic than 23 of 28 neighbors.
32204 runs about 50 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while 32204 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 32204. The north side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+76) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+16), a spread of about 60 points.
Why 32204 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 32204, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 78% of residents in 32204 live in densely developed areas, about 41 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 32204 sits in the top quarter (about 42%, above 83% of zip codes). 32204 runs against the grain of Florida, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 32204, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 32204 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 32204 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 70% of households in 32204 rent, compared to around 52% in nearby zip codes. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 32204 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.