32738 leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 70% of adults in 32738 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 32738, ~30% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 32738 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 32738 leans more Republican than 4 of 12 neighbors.
Politically, 32738 sits close to the rest of Florida.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 32738. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+22) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+5), a spread of about 17 points.
Why 32738 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 32738, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
32738 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 68%, modestly above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 79% of households in 32738 are family households, above 91% of zip codes.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 32738, FL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 32738 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 32738 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.