33534 is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 59% of adults in 33534 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33534, ~31% vote Democratic, ~28% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33534 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 33534 leans more Democratic than 17 of 30 neighbors.
33534 runs about 17 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while 33534 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 33534. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+17) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+40), a spread of about 57 points.
Why 33534 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33534, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
33534 votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while 33534 runs about 17 points more Democratic.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 33534, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 33534 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 33534 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 48%, about 9 points below the Florida average of 56%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 82% of adults in 33534 have completed high school, below 87% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.