38107 is a Democratic stronghold. About 87% of voters here vote Democratic and 13% Republican.
About 51% of adults in 38107 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 38107, ~44% vote Democratic, ~7% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 38107 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 38107 leans more Democratic than 28 of 36 neighbors.
38107 runs about 104 points more Democratic than Tennessee as a whole. Tennessee leans Republican overall, while 38107 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 38107. The southwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+83) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+57), a spread of about 26 points.
Why 38107 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 38107, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 97% of residents in 38107 live in densely developed areas, about 61 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 57% of adults in 38107 have never been married, above 97% of zip codes. 38107 runs against the grain of Tennessee, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 38107, TN sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 38107 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 38107 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 47%, about 9 points below the Tennessee average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 59% of households in 38107 rent, about 34 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 38107 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.