38127 is a Democratic stronghold. About 87% of voters here vote Democratic and 13% Republican.
About 50% of adults in 38127 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 38127, ~43% vote Democratic, ~6% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 38127 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 38127 leans more Democratic than 26 of 32 neighbors.
38127 runs about 104 points more Democratic than Tennessee as a whole. Tennessee leans Republican overall, while 38127 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 38127. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+80) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+52), a spread of about 28 points.
Why 38127 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 38127, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Density combined with diversity predicts Democratic voting. Non-Hispanic white share in 38127 is about 9%, about 64 points below the U.S. average of 72%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 53% of adults in 38127 have never been married, above 96% of zip codes. 38127 runs against the grain of Tennessee, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 38127, TN sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 38127 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 38127 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 38%, about 18 points below the Tennessee average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 57% of households in 38127 rent, about 32 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 38127 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.