78264 leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 49% of adults in 78264 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78264, ~23% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78264 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78264 leans more Republican than 10 of 15 neighbors.
78264 runs about 5 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 78264. The south side is the most split-leaning (R+14) and the east side is the least split-leaning (R+3), a spread of about 11 points.
Why 78264 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 78264, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 13% of adults in 78264 hold a bachelor's degree, about 13 points below the Texas average of 26%.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 78264, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 78264 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 78264 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 45%, about 9 points below the Texas average of 54%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 77% of adults in 78264 have completed high school, below 94% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.