78541 is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 41% of adults in 78541 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78541, ~20% vote Democratic, ~21% Republican, and ~59% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78541 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78541 leans more Republican than 11 of 16 neighbors.
78541 runs about 10 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 78541. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+10) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+14), a spread of about 24 points.
Why 78541 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 78541. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 78541, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 78541 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 78541 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 44%, about 10 points below the Texas average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 41% of households in 78541 rent, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 75% of adults in 78541 have completed high school, below 96% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.