85040 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 42 points: about 71% of voters vote Democratic and 29% Republican.
About 41% of adults in 85040 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85040, ~29% vote Democratic, ~12% Republican, and ~59% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85040 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85040 leans more Democratic than 50 of 55 neighbors.
85040 runs about 47 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85040 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85040. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+49) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+30), a spread of about 20 points.
Why 85040 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85040, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 98% of residents in 85040 live in densely developed areas, about 61 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 50% of adults in 85040 have never been married, above 95% of zip codes. 85040 runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 85040, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 85040 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85040 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 44%, about 10 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 52% of households in 85040 rent, about 27 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 35% of adults in 85040 report food insecurity, above 97% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.