85041 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 34 points: about 67% of voters vote Democratic and 33% Republican.
About 48% of adults in 85041 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85041, ~32% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~52% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85041 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85041 leans more Democratic than 40 of 50 neighbors.
85041 runs about 39 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85041 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85041. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+40) and the south side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+25), a spread of about 15 points.
Why 85041 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85041, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 93% of residents in 85041 live in densely developed areas, about 57 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 42% of adults in 85041 have never been married, above 89% of zip codes. 85041 runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 85041, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 85041 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85041 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 47%, about 7 points below the Arizona average of 54%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 31% of adults in 85041 report food insecurity, above 94% of zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 78% of adults in 85041 have completed high school, below 93% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.