85310 leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 83% of adults in 85310 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85310, ~32% vote Democratic, ~51% Republican, and ~17% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85310 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85310 leans more Republican than 42 of 48 neighbors.
85310 runs about 16 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85310. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+29) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+14), a spread of about 15 points.
Why 85310 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85310, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
85310 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 91%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 79% of households in 85310 are family households, above 89% of zip codes.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 85310, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 85310 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 85310 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 90% of households in 85310 own their home, compared to around 71% in nearby zip codes. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in 85310 have completed high school, above 87% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.