85609 leans heavily Republican by roughly 50 points: about 25% of voters vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 68% of adults in 85609 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85609, ~17% vote Democratic, ~51% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85609 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85609 leans more Republican than 1 of 3 neighbors.
85609 runs about 44 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85609. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+56) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+41), a spread of about 15 points.
Why 85609 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85609, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 2% of residents in 85609 live in densely developed areas, about 36 points below the Arizona average of 39%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 75% of households in 85609 are family households, above 79% of zip codes.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 85609, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 85609 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 98% of households in 85609 own their home, about 25 points above the Arizona average of 73%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in 85609 have completed high school, above 84% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.