85621 leans Democratic by roughly 30 points: about 65% of voters vote Democratic and 35% Republican.
About 57% of adults in 85621 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85621, ~37% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85621 compares
85621 runs about 35 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85621 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85621. The southwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+36) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+7), a spread of about 28 points.
Why 85621 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85621, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
85621 votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85621 runs about 35 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 37% of adults in 85621 have never been married, above 83% of zip codes.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 85621, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 85621 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85621 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 43%, about 11 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 52% of households in 85621 rent, compared to around 17% in nearby zip codes. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 33% of adults in 85621 report food insecurity, above 96% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.