85645 is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 68% of adults in 85645 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85645, ~32% vote Democratic, ~35% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85645 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85645 leans more Republican than 3 of 4 neighbors.
Politically, 85645 sits close to the rest of Arizona.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85645. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+3) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+27), a spread of about 30 points.
Why 85645 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 85645. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 85645, AZ sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 85645 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85645 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.