85640 is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 75% of adults in 85640 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85640, ~39% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~25% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85640 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85640 leans more Democratic than 3 of 4 neighbors.
85640 runs about 10 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole.
Why 85640 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 85640. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Never-married share and voter turnout
Places with a low never-married share tend to turn out at a higher rate; 85640, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 85640 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85640 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.