86011 is a Democratic stronghold. About 82% of voters here vote Democratic and 18% Republican.
About 31% of adults in 86011 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86011, ~25% vote Democratic, ~6% Republican, and ~69% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86011 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 86011 is the most Democratic-leaning.
86011 runs about 70 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 86011 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why 86011 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86011, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 93% of residents in 86011 live in densely developed areas, about 57 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 86011 sits in the top quarter (about 47%, above 87% of zip codes). 86011 runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 86011, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 86011 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 86011 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 40%, about 14 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 99% of households in 86011 rent, compared to around 29% in nearby zip codes. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 36% of adults in 86011 report food insecurity, above 97% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.