86303 leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 86% of adults in 86303 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86303, ~40% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~14% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86303 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 86303 is the least Republican-leaning.
Politically, 86303 sits close to the rest of Arizona.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86303. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+4) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+38), a spread of about 42 points.
Why 86303 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86303, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
86303 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 60%, well above the Arizona average of 39%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 86303, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 86303 looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 96% of adults in 86303 have completed high school, about 9 points above the Arizona average of 87%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.