86314 leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 78% of adults in 86314 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86314, ~31% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86314 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 86314 leans more Republican than 3 of 7 neighbors.
86314 runs about 14 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86314. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+29) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+16), a spread of about 13 points.
Why 86314 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86314, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
86314 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 74%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 86314, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 86314 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 86314 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.