23430 leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 89% of adults in 23430 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23430, ~41% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~11% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23430 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23430 leans more Republican than 13 of 21 neighbors.
23430 runs about 14 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23430 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23430. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+7) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+28), a spread of about 34 points.
Why 23430 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23430, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
23430 votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23430 runs about 14 points more Republican.
Cholesterol-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high cholesterol-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 23430, VA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cholesterol screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 23430 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 23430 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.