86329 leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 76% of adults in 86329 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86329, ~20% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86329 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 86329 is the most Republican-leaning.
86329 runs about 43 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Why 86329 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86329, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 6% of residents in 86329 live in densely developed areas, about 33 points below the Arizona average of 39%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 82% of households in 86329 are family households, above 94% of zip codes.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 86329, AZ sits below the national average on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 86329 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 86329 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.