86301 leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.
About 84% of adults in 86301 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86301, ~38% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~16% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86301 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 86301 leans more Republican than 1 of 8 neighbors.
86301 runs about 5 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86301. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+32), a spread of about 40 points.
Why 86301 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86301, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
86301 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 75%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 86301, AZ sits above the national average on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 86301 looks the way it does
Turnout in 86301 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.