86544 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 36 points: about 68% of voters vote Democratic and 32% Republican.
About 48% of adults in 86544 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86544, ~33% vote Democratic, ~15% Republican, and ~52% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86544 compares
86544 runs about 41 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 86544 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Why 86544 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86544, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
86544 votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 86544 runs about 41 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 49% of adults in 86544 have never been married, above 94% of zip codes.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 86544, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 86544 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 86544 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 42%, about 12 points below the Arizona average of 54%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 39% of adults in 86544 report food insecurity, above 98% of zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 76% of adults in 86544 have completed high school, below 95% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.