86514 is a Democratic stronghold. About 77% of voters here vote Democratic and 23% Republican.
About 58% of adults in 86514 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86514, ~44% vote Democratic, ~13% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86514 compares
86514 runs about 61 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 86514 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86514. The southwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+62) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+36), a spread of about 26 points.
Why 86514 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86514, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
86514 votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 86514 runs about 61 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 52% of adults in 86514 have never been married, above 96% of zip codes.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; 86514, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 86514 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 86514 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 42%, about 12 points below the Arizona average of 54%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 40% of adults in 86514 report food insecurity, above 98% of zip codes. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 86514 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.