92861 leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 88% of adults in 92861 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 92861, ~34% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~12% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 92861 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 92861 is the most Republican-leaning.
92861 runs about 42 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while 92861 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 92861. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+33) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+12), a spread of about 20 points.
Why 92861 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 92861, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
92861 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 99%, far above the California average of 58%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 83% of households in 92861 are family households, above 95% of zip codes. 92861 runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a low uninsured rate tend to turn out at a higher rate, as 92861, CA does.
Why turnout in 92861 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 92861 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 72%, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 92% of households in 92861 own their home, compared to around 60% in nearby zip codes. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in 92861 have completed high school, above 88% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.