95204 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican.
About 50% of adults in 95204 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 95204, ~28% vote Democratic, ~21% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 95204 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 95204 leans more Democratic than 14 of 21 neighbors.
95204 runs about 7 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 95204. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+26) and the west side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+4), a spread of about 22 points.
Why 95204 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 95204, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in 95204 live in densely developed areas, about 63 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 39% of adults in 95204 have never been married, above 86% of zip codes.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; 95204, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 95204 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 95204 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 39% of households in 95204 rent, above 86% of zip codes. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 21% of adults in 95204 report food insecurity, above 81% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.