96086 leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 47% of adults in 96086 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 96086, ~17% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~53% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 96086 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 96086 leans more Republican than 2 of 3 neighbors.
96086 runs about 48 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while 96086 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 96086. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+30) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+15), a spread of about 15 points.
Why 96086 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 96086, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in 96086 live in densely developed areas, about 55 points below the California average of 58%. 96086 runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 96086, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 96086 looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 7% of homes in 96086 have more than one occupant per room, above 92% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.