Aguanga leans heavily Republican by roughly 34 points: about 33% of voters vote Democratic and 67% Republican.
About 58% of adults in Aguanga typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Aguanga, ~19% vote Democratic, ~39% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Aguanga compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Aguanga leans more Republican than 25 of 28 neighbors.
Aguanga runs about 55 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Aguanga is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Aguanga. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+39) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+19), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Aguanga leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Aguanga, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Aguanga votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Aguanga runs about 55 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and Aguanga sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 4%, below 83% of cities). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 79% of households in Aguanga are family households, above 87% of cities.
Developed land and Republican lean
Places with a rural land-use pattern tend to lean Republican; Aguanga, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Aguanga looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 9% of homes in Aguanga have more than one occupant per room, above 96% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Holcomb Village, CA R+34
- Cahuilla, CA R+27
- Radec, CA R+41
- Anza, CA R+20
- Sage, CA R+42
- Warner Springs, CA R+19
- Palomar Mountain, CA R+20
- Thomas Mountain, CA R+17
- Pauma Valley, CA R+26
- Pala, CA R+20
Cities with Similar Populations
- Claysville, PA R+51
- Heath Springs, SC R+41
- Nesquehoning, PA R+34
- Oxford, NY R+39
- South Haven, MN R+48
- Laurel Hill, NC R+34
- Wintersville, OH R+28
- Naples, NY R+15
- Stillman Valley, IL R+33
- Galliano, LA R+79
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.