Ardenwood leans heavily Democratic by roughly 36 points: about 68% of voters vote Democratic and 32% Republican.
About 53% of adults in Ardenwood typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Ardenwood, ~36% vote Democratic, ~17% Republican, and ~47% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Ardenwood compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Ardenwood leans more Democratic than 7 of 9 neighbors.
Ardenwood runs about 16 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Why Ardenwood leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Ardenwood, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 74% of adults in Ardenwood hold a bachelor's degree, about 46 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Ardenwood, Fremont, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Ardenwood looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 6% of homes in Ardenwood have more than one occupant per room, above 83% of neighborhoods. Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and Ardenwood sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Contempo, Union City, CA D+30
- Parkmont, Fremont, CA D+36
- Fairway Park, Hayward, CA D+36
- Niles Junction, Fremont, CA D+31
- Tennyson-Alquire, Hayward, CA D+35
- Sundale, Fremont, CA D+34
- Downtown Fremont, Fremont, CA D+37
- Glen Eden, Hayward, CA D+33
- Mission-Garin, Hayward, CA D+43
- Harder-Tennyson, Hayward, CA D+37
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Crossroads, Highland, CA R+5
- Northeast Hazel Dell, Hazel Dell, WA D+18
- Sundance, Buckeye, AZ R+8
- Lankershim, Highland, CA D+22
- Hill East, Washington, DC D+80
- Lincoln Park, Washington, DC D+84
- Barnaby Woods, Washington, DC D+74
- Cobble Hill, Brooklyn, NY D+79
- N Albuquerque Acres, Albuquerque, NM Even
- Thompson Community, San Antonio, TX D+33
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.