Mission-Garin leans heavily Democratic by roughly 44 points: about 72% of voters vote Democratic and 28% Republican.
About 39% of adults in Mission-Garin typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mission-Garin, ~28% vote Democratic, ~11% Republican, and ~61% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mission-Garin compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Mission-Garin leans more Democratic than 16 of 17 neighbors.
Mission-Garin runs about 23 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Mission-Garin. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+47) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+36), a spread of about 11 points.
Why Mission-Garin leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Mission-Garin. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Mission-Garin, Hayward, CA sits above the national average on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Mission-Garin looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 12% of homes in Mission-Garin have more than one occupant per room, above 93% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Tennyson-Alquire, Hayward, CA D+35
- Whitman-Mocine, Hayward, CA D+33
- Harder-Tennyson, Hayward, CA D+37
- Fairway Park, Hayward, CA D+36
- Hayward Highland, Hayward, CA D+41
- Jackson Triangle, Hayward, CA D+38
- Mission-Foothill, Hayward, CA D+43
- Glen Eden, Hayward, CA D+33
- Southgate, Hayward, CA D+39
- Burbank-Hayward, Hayward, CA D+42
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- La Sierra Acres, Riverside, CA D+8
- North Deering, Portland, ME D+46
- Highland Hills, Henderson, NV R+9
- Muscoy, San Bernardino, CA D+20
- Near Southside, Columbus, OH D+72
- Alderwood Manor, Lynnwood, WA D+23
- Cleveland Park, Washington, DC D+77
- Sunnyside, Clackamas, OR D+26
- Glendale-Heatherdowns, Toledo, OH D+24
- Radburn, Fair Lawn, NJ D+8
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.