Arlington leans heavily Republican by roughly 50 points: about 25% of voters vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Arlington typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Arlington, ~13% vote Democratic, ~39% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Arlington compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Arlington leans more Republican than 9 of 10 neighbors.
Arlington runs about 44 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Arlington. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+53) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+41), a spread of about 12 points.
Why Arlington leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Arlington. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Arlington, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Arlington looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Arlington is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 7% of homes in Arlington have more than one occupant per room, above 93% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Palo Verde, AZ R+44
- Tonopah, AZ R+50
- Perryville, AZ R+21
- Buckeye, AZ R+16
- Liberty, AZ R+41
- Rainbow Valley, AZ R+30
- Sil Murk, AZ R+9
- Goodyear, AZ R+8
- Waddell, AZ R+35
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lake Church, WI R+38
- Wiley, CO R+64
- View, ID R+75
- Condon, OR R+45
- Jasper, VA R+65
- West Union, IL R+58
- Osborn, MO R+62
- Henderson, MO R+62
- Edwards, NY R+40
- Spraggs, PA R+59
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.