Tonopah leans heavily Republican by roughly 50 points: about 25% of voters vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 48% of adults in Tonopah typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tonopah, ~12% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~52% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tonopah compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tonopah is the most Republican-leaning.
Tonopah runs about 44 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tonopah. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+52) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+41), a spread of about 11 points.
Why Tonopah leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tonopah, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 13% of adults in Tonopah hold a bachelor's degree, about 12 points below the Arizona average of 25%.
High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a high uninsured rate tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Tonopah, AZ does.
Why turnout in Tonopah looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Tonopah is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 20% of adults in Tonopah report food insecurity, above 81% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 77% of adults in Tonopah have completed high school, below 94% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Arlington, AZ R+49
- Palo Verde, AZ R+44
- Buckeye, AZ R+16
- Perryville, AZ R+21
- Liberty, AZ R+41
- Waddell, AZ R+35
- Rainbow Valley, AZ R+30
- Goodyear, AZ R+8
- Wittmann, AZ R+52
Cities with Similar Populations
- Faysville, TX R+13
- Durand, MI R+30
- Linton, IN R+48
- Highland Heights, KY R+12
- Ramblewood, NJ D+9
- Polk City, IA R+28
- Lincoln Park, TX R+5
- Blakely, PA Even
- DeLeon Springs, FL R+39
- Reserve, LA D+17
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.