Ashburn leans Democratic by roughly 24 points: about 62% of voters vote Democratic and 38% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Ashburn typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Ashburn, ~50% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Ashburn compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Ashburn leans more Democratic than 81 of 147 neighbors.
Ashburn runs about 17 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Ashburn. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+28) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+14), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Ashburn leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Ashburn, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 70% of adults in Ashburn hold a bachelor's degree, about 42 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Dense areas vote Democratic, and Ashburn sits in the top fifth on density (about 82%, above 95% of cities).
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Ashburn, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Ashburn looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Ashburn is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 76%, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Ashburn have completed high school, above 83% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Broadlands, VA D+21
- Lansdowne, VA D+23
- Brambleton, VA D+22
- Dulles Town Center, VA D+26
- Sycolin, VA D+6
- Countryside, VA D+21
- Sterling, VA D+23
- Arcola, VA D+23
- Cascades, VA D+28
- Sugarland, MD D+13
Cities with Similar Populations
- Richmond, CA D+60
- Citrus Heights, CA R+3
- Deerfield Beach, FL D+16
- Florence, SC D+5
- Parker, CO R+10
- Atascocita, TX Even
- Wesley Chapel, FL R+6
- Waukesha, WI R+7
- Greer, SC R+29
- Snellville, GA D+42
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.