Bakersfield leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.
About 48% of adults in the Bakersfield area typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in the Bakersfield area, ~21% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~52% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bakersfield compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Bakersfield leans more Republican than 7 of 17 neighbors.
Bakersfield runs about 32 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Bakersfield is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Bakersfield. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+43) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+9), a spread of about 34 points.
Why Bakersfield leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bakersfield, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Bakersfield votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 78%, well above the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 76% of households in the Bakersfield area are family households, above 78% of cities. Bakersfield runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Bakersfield, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Bakersfield looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Bakersfield is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 40% of households in the Bakersfield area rent, above 94% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 29% of adults in the Bakersfield area report food insecurity, above 94% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Oildale, CA R+34
- Pumpkin Center, CA R+29
- Lamont, CA D+15
- Edison, CA R+36
- Weedpatch, CA Even
- Cawelo, CA R+52
- Di Giorgio, CA R+31
- Edmundson Acres, CA Even
- Arvin, CA D+9
- Mexican Colony, CA R+52
Cities with Similar Populations
- Knoxville, TN R+32
- Albuquerque, NM D+14
- Albany, NY D+14
- Greenville, SC R+26
- McAllen, TX R+2
- Baton Rouge, LA R+6
- El Paso, TX D+14
- Worcester, MA D+12
- Allentown, PA Even
- Omaha, NE D+2
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.