Baldwin leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 83% of adults in Baldwin typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Baldwin, ~26% vote Democratic, ~57% Republican, and ~17% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Baldwin compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Baldwin leans more Republican than 7 of 24 neighbors.
Baldwin runs about 25 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Why Baldwin leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Baldwin, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Baldwin votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 35%, well below the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Baldwin, FL sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Baldwin looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Baldwin is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Bryceville, FL R+75
- Stokesville, GA R+86
- Macclenny, FL R+57
- Verdie, FL R+75
- Oakleaf Plantation, FL D+7
- Hugh, FL R+70
- Glen St. Mary, FL R+73
- St. George, GA R+82
- Toledo, GA R+82
- Bellair-Meadowbrook Terrace, FL R+8
Cities with Similar Populations
- Jewett, TX R+68
- Londonderry, VT D+6
- Whitethorn, CA D+17
- Glenville, MN R+41
- Ralph, AL R+31
- Empire City, OK R+70
- Wheatland, MO R+64
- Bainbridge, IN R+60
- McPherson, GA R+46
- Monaville, TX R+38
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.