Baldwin is a Republican stronghold. About 20% of voters here vote Democratic and 80% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Baldwin typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Baldwin, ~14% vote Democratic, ~55% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Baldwin compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Baldwin leans more Republican than 56 of 69 neighbors.
Baldwin runs about 71 points more Republican than Illinois as a whole. Illinois leans Democratic overall, while Baldwin is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Baldwin leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Baldwin, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In Baldwin, more than 99% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 27 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 9% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 18 points below the Illinois average of 27%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 80% of households in Baldwin are family households, above 89% of cities. Baldwin runs against the grain of Illinois, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Baldwin, IL sits below the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in Baldwin looks the way it does
Turnout in Baldwin sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Houston, IL R+58
- Preston, IL R+60
- Prairie, IL R+55
- Old Marissa, IL R+55
- Marissa, IL R+56
- Evansville, IL R+51
- Red Bud, IL R+51
- Sparta, IL R+32
- Lenzburg, IL R+57
- Walsh, IL R+60
Cities with Similar Populations
- Ingalls, MI R+43
- Elm Hall, MI R+49
- Rose Valley, WA R+28
- Paguate, NM D+45
- Heron, MT R+59
- Elberon, VA R+14
- Pultneyville, NY R+17
- Viola, DE R+33
- Baggs, WY R+76
- Cheraw, CO R+66
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.