Paguate leans heavily Democratic by roughly 46 points: about 73% of voters vote Democratic and 27% Republican.
About 61% of adults in Paguate typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Paguate, ~45% vote Democratic, ~17% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Paguate compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Paguate leans more Democratic than 8 of 16 neighbors.
Paguate runs about 39 points more Democratic than New Mexico as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Paguate. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+54) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+10), a spread of about 64 points.
Why Paguate leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Paguate, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 50% of adults in Paguate have never been married, well above similar-sized cities (around 24%).
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with high food insecurity tend to turn out at a lower rate; Paguate, NM sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in Paguate looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Paguate is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 49%, about 9 points below the New Mexico average of 58%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 38% of adults in Paguate report food insecurity, above 98% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Seboyeta, NM R+10
- Laguna, NM D+33
- New Laguna, NM D+46
- Mesita, NM D+36
- Cubero, NM D+16
- Paraje, NM D+47
- Seama, NM D+52
- Casa Blanca, NM D+58
- North Acomita Village, NM D+64
Cities with Similar Populations
- Elberon, VA R+14
- Pultneyville, NY R+17
- Elm Hall, MI R+49
- Cheraw, CO R+66
- Baldwin, IL R+60
- Reservoir, PA R+44
- Baggs, WY R+76
- Latimer, IA R+51
- Sugar Tree Ridge, OH R+68
- Heron, MT R+59
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.