Banning is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Banning typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Banning, ~25% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Banning compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Banning leans more Republican than 16 of 53 neighbors.
Banning runs about 24 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Banning is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Banning. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+17) and the north side runs the most Republican (R+19), a spread of about 37 points.
Why Banning leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Banning, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Banning votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Banning runs about 24 points more Republican.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Banning, CA does.
Why turnout in Banning looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Banning is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 33% of households in Banning rent, above 88% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 25% of adults in Banning report food insecurity, above 91% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Beaumont, CA R+13
- Cherry Valley, CA R+27
- Cabazon, CA R+11
- Oak Glen, CA R+36
- Soboba Hot Springs, CA R+14
- Calimesa, CA R+29
- San Jacinto, CA R+3
- Forest Falls, CA R+21
- Yucaipa, CA R+29
- Valle Vista, CA R+15
Cities with Similar Populations
- Baldwinsville, NY D+4
- Garden City, KS R+18
- Ephrata, PA R+29
- Dakota Ridge, CO D+9
- Helena, MT D+17
- Southlake, TX R+29
- East Wenatchee, WA R+24
- Shelbyville, TN R+43
- Foothill Farms, CA D+2
- Sand Springs, OK R+33
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.