Calimesa leans Republican by roughly 30 points: about 35% of voters vote Democratic and 65% Republican.
About 71% of adults in Calimesa typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Calimesa, ~25% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Calimesa compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Calimesa leans more Republican than 62 of 68 neighbors.
Calimesa runs about 50 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Calimesa is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Calimesa. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+35) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+18), a spread of about 17 points.
Why Calimesa leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Calimesa, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Calimesa votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 66%, modestly above the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Calimesa runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Calimesa, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Calimesa looks the way it does
Turnout in Calimesa sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Yucaipa, CA R+29
- Cherry Valley, CA R+27
- Moreno, CA R+34
- Beaumont, CA R+13
- Oak Glen, CA R+36
- Mentone, CA R+18
- Redlands, CA D+3
- Banning, CA R+4
- Forest Falls, CA R+21
Cities with Similar Populations
- Blair, NE R+38
- Lecanto, FL R+45
- Clawson, MI D+13
- Swainsboro, GA R+23
- Kodiak, AK R+17
- Brooklyn, OH D+5
- Manville, NJ R+10
- Sunland Park, NM D+13
- Rockwell, NC R+60
- East Hanover, NJ R+32
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.