Bay Harbor Islands, FL Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Bay Harbor Islands

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Bay Harbor Islands leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.

 

About 64% of adults in Bay Harbor Islands typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bay Harbor Islands, ~28% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Bay Harbor Islands compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Bay Harbor Islands leans more Republican than 51 of 81 neighbors.

Politically, Bay Harbor Islands sits close to the rest of Florida.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Bay Harbor Islands. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+28) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+11), a spread of about 17 points.

Why Bay Harbor Islands leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bay Harbor Islands, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Bay Harbor Islands votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 78%, well above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.

Population density and Democratic lean

Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Bay Harbor Islands, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.

Why turnout in Bay Harbor Islands looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Bay Harbor Islands is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in Bay Harbor Islands have completed high school, above 95% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.