Surfside leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 75% of adults in Surfside typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Surfside, ~30% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~25% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Surfside compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Surfside leans more Republican than 61 of 83 neighbors.
Surfside runs about 8 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Why Surfside leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Surfside, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Surfside votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 78%, well above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Surfside, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Surfside looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 98% of adults in Surfside have completed high school, about 8 points above the Florida average of 89%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Surfside sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Bay Harbor Islands, FL R+15
- Bal Harbour, FL R+27
- North Bay Village, FL R+5
- Biscayne Park, FL D+12
- North Miami, FL D+41
- Sunny Isles Beach, FL R+25
- Miami Shores, FL D+30
- North Miami Beach, FL D+20
- El Portal, FL D+46
Cities with Similar Populations
- Groesbeck, TX R+50
- Spooner, WI R+27
- Hubbard, OR R+22
- Ogallala, NE R+54
- Delta, PA R+53
- Santa Ynez, CA D+6
- Iowa Falls, IA R+34
- Cassopolis, MI R+21
- Tryon, NC R+16
- Pink Hill, NC R+55
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.