Bay Head leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 72% of adults in Bay Head typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bay Head, ~30% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bay Head compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Bay Head leans more Republican than 39 of 103 neighbors.
Bay Head runs about 23 points more Republican than New Jersey as a whole. New Jersey leans Democratic overall, while Bay Head is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Bay Head leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bay Head, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Bay Head votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 52%, modestly below the New Jersey average of 61%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts. Bay Head runs against the grain of New Jersey, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Bay Head, NJ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Bay Head looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Bay Head is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 76%, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and more than 99% of adults in Bay Head have completed high school, in the top fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Point Pleasant, NJ R+25
- Point Pleasant Beach, NJ R+20
- Brielle, NJ R+19
- Manasquan, NJ R+18
- Mantoloking, NJ R+24
- Brick, NJ R+28
- Sea Girt, NJ R+19
- Dover Beaches North, NJ R+27
- Allenwood, NJ R+29
- Spring Lake Heights, NJ R+5
Cities with Similar Populations
- East Machias, ME R+29
- Hillburn, NY D+6
- Brownsdale, MN R+35
- Moodys, OK R+44
- Wessington, AL R+70
- Hill, NH R+11
- Leroy, AL R+34
- Leonidas, MI R+50
- Ivanhoe, NC D+8
- Lyon Mountain, NY R+30
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Jersey Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.